Forecast Highs

I feel sorry for Bashar Assad.

The closer Israel and Syria get to direct peace talks, the more aggressive those opposed to that deal seem to become, and Assad is taking some serious hits to his administration. What has always held true, that there is a strong government in Syria that can sign, implement and maintain a peace accord with Israel, is starting to come undone. The assassinations of Imad Mughniyeh and Mohammed Suleiman have seriously embarrassed the Assad regime. The message that these two events sends, both to the internal Syrian audience, and to the wider Arab public, is that Assad is not in complete control of his country, that he is on shaky ground. If this is truly the case, and somebody is working to destabilize the Assad regime, then the prospects that the latest round of Syrian-Israel peace talks could lead to a breakthrough, and that peace could be maintained, are diminished. Which, of course, could be the real aim of whoever is behind the attempts to rattle the Syrian government. Peace between Israel and Syria would open the door for other Arab states to do the same. Syria’s benefit would be greater integration with the West, moving away from the axis of evil, and isolating Iran [who would be left alone on that axis with North Korea].

Assad needs to find out who assassinated these men on his soil, and quick. He needs to show his country that everything is under control, that his regime is stable. Problem is, the hidden hand behind the assassinations could belong to his biggest ally and only real friend right now, Iran. If this is the case, Tehran is sending a very strong message to Damascus: the further you progress with Israel, the closer you come to losing your head. Iran would love it if Suleiman’s assassins turned out to be Israeli, and already their state media is spinning that story. Iran has an enormous interest in framing Israel for the assassination: It’s scared to death of Syrian-Israeli-Arab world peace.

Or, the hand behind Assad’s woes may belong to Israel’s Mossad, in which case the indirect talks mediated by Turkey will most likely be called off. In any case, Assad’s security apparatus has been infiltrated to a very high degree. You don’t just blow up the car of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus and gun down Mohammed Suleiman [Assad's military advisor] in Tartus without intimate knowledge of these men’s whereabouts. Israel had a long score to settle with Mughniyeh, and killing Suleiman could somewhat disrupt Syria’s weapons transfers to Hizbullah, of which he was in charge. In terms of Israel: Mughniyeh maybe, Suleiman – highly unlikely.

In addition to this, somewhere down the line, Assad’s regime is likely to face its stiffest challenge: the probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. If the UN tribunal investigating that incident accuses elements of Assad’s regime, and perhaps those closest to Assad himself, the Syrian leader may start feeling like he has very few friends left.

And peace with Israel, whose parliamentarians are on the verge of making it almost impossible to trade the Golan Heights for peace, becomes more remote.