Knesset speaker Dalia Itzik set the elections for February 10, 2009. That’s about 100 days from now.
Here are a few observations from some of the polls released today.
In a Haaretz Dialogue poll, those asked who is most able to deal with Israel’s security problems, 33 percent of respondents answered Netanyahu, 26 percent said Defense Minister Ehud Barak, head of the Labor Party, and 14 percent said Livni. And this is why Kadima leader Tzipi Livni needs former chief of staff and minister of defense Shaul Mofaz so badly, to bolster her and Kadima’s security credentials. Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter, while seen as a Mr. Security for having served in the secretive Shabak for many years, has taken a beating of late for his handling of the Uri Bar-Lev affair and other police bungles. There is a general sense in the country that Livni, as prime minister, would be tested by the likes of Hizbullah, Hamas and maybe even the Syrians. With Mofaz [as possible Foreign Minister] and Ehud Barak [as Defense Minister] at her side, Livni would look a hell of a lot less vulnerable. Livni also desperately needs Mofaz to be happy with his lot in life and not deepen his animosity for her after her narrow win over him in the Kadima leadership race; she does not need a rebel camp in Kadima.
To this end, Kadima’s brass has been trying all sorts of tricks to secure poor Mofaz the number 2 slot; but actually all this just weakens him. Livni has asked Mofaz to be her campaign manager and election-day general, a very prestigious position, which in the last elections was held by Avi Dichter. Mofaz hasn’t replied yet. Mofaz’s people have also said that he has never even asked to be assured the number two slot. While everyone in the party is trying really hard and creatively to change the rules of the game for him, rules enshrined in the internal Kadima code, the hapless Mofaz is left standing on the playground with his hands in his pockets, kicking a stone while waiting for others to call the game. How the mighty have fallen. Just a few weeks ago he was vying for the top Kadima spot, saying he was the best possible man to lead Israel into stormy seas [and a war with Iran], and now he needs Kadima MKs to try and find a loophole in the Kadima constitution to secure him a spot on the Kadima list behind Tzipi Livni. If Mofaz is to eventually vie for a Kadima slot just like the rest of the MKs, he would be well advised to begin campaigning now, set his own agenda instead of waiting for a loophole to appear; get some of his self-respect back.
According to polls on the Knesset channel, most Kadima members don’t want Mofaz’s place to be assured in the number two slot; another reason for Mofaz to publicly declare that he’s not interested in being reserved a spot and will fight his way to the top just like all the others.
In any case, this whole story is making him look weak and the sooner it’s over the better for him. Livni is, belatedly, trying to give him a bear hug after barely defeating him in the leadership battle last month. Mofaz still has a lot of political support within the Kadima electorate and several MKs within his camp, so he should feel confident enough of getting the number 2 spot on his own without much trouble. A potential danger: Rishon LeTzion mayor Meir Nitzan however, said today that he might shift his [considerable] support from Mofaz to somebody else, as he was not invited to a Mofaz supporters meeting today.
The Right wing parties seem to have a stronger chance of forming a government than the center left, the polls show. What does this mean for the peace process with the Palestinians and Syrians? Whoever wins the elections will most likely have to form a coalition with Shas. In this regard nothing much changes from what occurred in the coalition negotiations earlier in October.
The Likud will run on a “Livni will divide Jerusalem” ticket, so it is pretty safe to assume there will be no progress with the Palestinians. Netanyahu wants “economic peace” with the Palestinians, to let them build up their economic institutions. There is no long-term vision for peace with the Palestinians under the current Likud campaign climate.
Eli Yishai of Shas has already said Jerusalem will never be given up, and that it is delusion to think of peace with Syria, so what’s the point of giving up the Golan Heights? On this score they are no different than the Likud [even though I'm pretty sure both Livni and especially Barak will accuse Bibi of secretly agreeing to give up the Golan Heights when he was Prime Minister].
The Likud may have an interesting problem coming up in the primaries: it has too many ex-generals. After having no real security men after Ariel Sharon and Shaul Mofaz’s departure to form Kadima, Likud leader Netanyahu looked around and he now has former OC Northern Command Yossi Peled [who became a household name as a real-time Second Lebanon War TV commentator], former Deputy Chief of Staff Uzi Dayan and Dan Meridor [while a civilian, has served on several sensitive committees and drew up Israel's strategic doctrine]. But the real ace in Netanyahu’s deck is former Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon. But Ya’alon still hasn’t announced if and with whom he is running, although he is expected to join the Likud and win a respected placing on its list.
Polls show that if elections were held today Labor would lose half of its mandates. Labor is in real trouble [even it's website is down] and Barak is shooting around to find something that differentiates his party from Kadima; something like the Arab Peace Initiative, and getting really tough on the settlers. Ehud Barak has decided that Labor will hold primaries ahead of the general elections. If Labor drops from its current 19 mandates to 10, there will be a lot of Labor MKs who could find themselves out of the next Knesset. Already today, former Labor leader and arch-enemy to Barak, Amir Peretz, called in his supporters for a meeting. Those who are within the opening 10 spots on the list probably want to duplicate the same roster as the previous Knesset, and those outside of the first ten [and who could find themselves out of a job on February 11] want primaries to try and improve their positions. The end result of this is that Barak now knows, as if he didn’t remember, that there is a very vocal and dangerous rebel camp within his party. .
Another interesting poll finding is that is that the Pensioners Party, who were the big surprise of the last election with 7 mandates, is virtually wiped out, with some of their votes going to the Green Party. Many people who voted for the Pensioners party in the last elections were not pensioners, but young people, who cast their ballot as a sort-of protest vote. If elections were held today, that protest vote would go towards environmental parties, which seems a more natural choice for the young, first-time voters. Problem is that the Green Party has been caught largely unprepared for its projected, sudden success and has a lot of work to do to organize itself. If they succeed in doing it well, and in time for the February 10 election, they might be the big winners.
This is the Knesset channel poll:
Kadima 31
Likud 29
Israel Hayom poll has the first two results reversed
Labor 10 [loses half of its mandates]
Arab Parties 10
Yisrael Beitenu 10
Shas 9
NRP 8
Meretz 5
UTJ 5
Greens 5
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