Forecast Highs

Much of the international community’s hope for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians currently rests on the formation of two national unity governments, one in Israel and one in the Palestinian territories.

Both the Israelis [represented by the Likud and Kadima parties] and the Palestinians [represented by Fatah and Hamas] are currently absorbed in near-identical processes to unite their two largest ideological blocs. On the Palestinian side, one of the blocs is represented by a terrorist organization that refuses to recognize Israel, disavow violence, or respect previous signed agreements. Its charter calls for the destruction of Israel, and the most it is willing to countenance is a long term truce, not a two-state solution. Hamas’ inclusion in a Palestinian unity government the world can engage with is by no means a foregone conclusion, nor is Israel’s engagement with such a Palestinian national unity government should it arise.

America, Europe and Egypt are pushing Fatah and Hamas very hard to form a national unity government, but Palestinian reconciliation will not be easy to achieve, perhaps harder even than a formation of a national unity government in Israel. In Israel, Tzipi Livni is leaning towards taking her Kadima party into the opposition, calculating that a narrow right-wing government led by Binyamin Netanyahu will not last long, paving the way for Kadima’s return to power. Netanyahu is trying to coax Livni into a coalition by offering her half of his Kingdom. But Livni doesn’t want to save Bibi from a tortuous year, year-and-a-half at the helm of a narrow right wing government.

Netanyahu can’t make progress on peace with the Palestinians as the head of a narrow right-wing government of 65 MKs, the best he can hope for is conflict management with the Palestinians and with an American administration that is gung-ho on movement along the Annapolis process. Bibi’s diplomatic outlook, which posits an ‘economic peace’ while the Palestinians build their institutions towards a demilitarized state that cannot threaten Israel’s security, will not be enough for the current Palestinian Authority leadership, let alone a Fatah-Hamas unitiy government. Stagnation on the diplomatic front or even a rollback will strain a Fatah-Hamas coalition, should one arise.

To get Livni in his coalition, Bibi will have to agree to compromise on his government’s coalition guidelines relating to the two-state solution, and thus sacrifice his right flank, which negates any mention of a Palestinian state in those guidelines. Livni cannot enter a coalition government without the promise of movement along the Annapolis process, and Netanyahu can’t live with Annapolis. Likud dove Dan Meridor said Sunday that the differences between Kadima and the Likud are not that great, much smaller than the differences between Itzhak Shamir and Shimon Peres in 1984, who managed to form a unity government. But the differences between Meridor and more hawkish MKs like Benny Begin are greater. And the differences between Kadima and the ultra-Nationalist Jewish Home party are much greater.

Even if Livni joins a national unity government under Bibi, there is no guaranteeing that progress on peace talks will be made – the Likud itself has a strong right wing, Shas is against any talks on Jerusalem, and the far right parties will bolt the second an outpost is evacuated. An Israeli national unity government will have very little room to maneuver on the Annapolis process, its main function will be to deal with the Iranian issue and the worsening economic crisis. As Meridor said Sunday: “There will be negotiations with the Palestinians [under a Likud-led government], not with Hamas, but with the PA. We need to find a way to advance the diplomatic process while safeguarding Israel’s security. But even during the years of negotiations of the previous government no agreement was reached, so why should we [Likud and Kadima] fight now over eggs that haven’t hatched yet? There are other things we can do together.”

Livni will always be pushing a Likud-led government to the Left – towards progress on the Palestinian, and perhaps Syrian, tracks. And Livni will find it increasingly difficult to stay in a government that does not make any progress along the Annapolis process – she will be constantly attacked by the Left while seeing her party’s centrist platform slowly erode as people who voted for her in this election make their way back to Labor and Meretz for the next election. If she opts for the opposition Livni has a chance to replace Netanyahu in the next elections, whenever they may be held. If she opts for a coalition, she’ll be blamed for stagnation on peace talks and her centrist image. Kadima hawk Yaakov Edri said Sunday that Kadima will not enter a coalition without the two-state solution being part of the guidelines. “We have to have two states for two peoples in the coalition guidelines. We already have agreements with the Americans on this. There have been previous government agreements with the Palestinians on this,” Edri said.

On the Palestinian side of the equation, the Obama administration will work to ‘create a partner for Israel’ on the Palestinian side by pushing for Hamas and Fatah to reconcile. But there is bad blood, much of it fresh, between the two sides. Hamas no longer recognizes PA President Mahmoud Abbas as President. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal has called for replacing the PLO. Hamas and Fatah haven’t even begun negotiating over coalition guidelines; they’re still stuck on Hamas’ demands for a release of ‘political prisoners’ held in PA jails. Hamas wants its supporters in the West Bank freed so that they can continue spreading Hamas’ influence. PA President Mahmoud Abbas wants to keep Hamas in the West Bank weak so that his divided Fatah party can maintain control. If and when the prisoner issue is resolved, then the two parties can get to talking about ideological issues and coalition guidelines. As Khaled Abu Toameh reported Sunday: “Hamas and Fatah are expected to form five joint committees to resolve issues such as control over the border crossings into the Gaza Strip, reconstructing the PA security forces and forming a new unity government.”

In the meantime, America has made its intentions clearer, sending Senator John Kerry to Damascus, which hosts Hamas’ hard-line leadership. “Syria could be, in fact, very helpful in helping to bring about a [Palestinian] unity government,” Kerry told reporters after meeting President Bashar al-Assad. “If you achieve that, then you have made a major step forward not only in dealing with the problems of Gaza but you have made a major step forward in terms of how you reignite discussions for the two-state solution,” he added.

The international community will find it hard to work with a fragile Israeli government whose coalition threatens to fall apart at every hint of progress on peace, as well as a Palestinian unity government where Hamas refuses to stop trying to destroy Israel. Two national unity governments will not necessarily mean a two-state solution.