So is there a deal or isn’t there a deal? So far it looks as if Iran has rejected the deal to export the lion’s share of its enriched uranium to Russia and France. This should elicit a sigh of relief in Jerusalem. As evidenced by remarks yesterday and today, Israeli officials were really worried Iran would actually agree to the deal offered by the P5+1, which in the end, will see Iran become a nuclear threshold state like Japan, with all the ingredients it needs to produce nuclear weapons and just waiting for a political decision to do so.
According to the FT yesterday, Western diplomats expressed serious doubts yesterday that Tehran would sign up to an agreement to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium. As two days of talks with Iran on its nuclear programme ended in Vienna Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Tehran had agreed a draft proposal under which it would send most of its low-enriched uranium abroad for processing. However, the draft must be approved by Iran and the three other states involved in the Vienna talks – the US, France and Russia – by tomorrow. If Tehran does not agree to the proposal, it is likely to be withdrawn, dealing a blow to US efforts to engage with Iran over its nuclear programme.
The draft text says Iran should cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by about 85 per cent by the end of this year, transferring the fuel to France and Russia. Both those countries, in turn, would give Iran fuel that could be used to create medical isotopes for cancer treatment.
Iran is using every single negotiation tactic in the book in order to buy time.
1. Be as non-committal and vague as you possibly can be, with one official saying we absolutely will consider this proposal, we’ll send it on to Tehran and get back to you with our comments, of which there will be many: “We are fully cooperating,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s IAEA ambassador. “[But] we have to thoroughly study this text and . . . come back and reflect our opinion and suggestions or comments in order to have an amicable solution at the end of the day.”
and another official saying there is no deal
How much time does “thoroughly studying the text take”? At least a few weeks, if past Iranian behavior is anything to go by.
2. Feign non-acceptance of the deal for as long as you can, just before the other side withdraws the offer, then feign guarded acceptance, with some reservations. That means both sides go back to the negotiating table and the dance continues – Iran buys itself more time.
3. Counter-proposals: AP: Iranian state TV said that Tehran was waiting for a response to its own proposal to buy nuclear fuel rather than ship low-enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment. Iran has often used counterproposals as a way to draw out nuclear negotiations with the West. Reuters: “Iran is interested in buying fuel for the Tehran research reactor within the framework of a clear proposal … we are waiting for the other party’s constructive and trust-building response,” TV quoted a member of Iran’s negotiating team as saying.
Iran wants this process, drawing it out as long as possible.
As long as the talks continue there is little chance of stepped-up sanctions, especially on refined oil.
As long as there is a diplomatic process going on Israel’s hands are tied militarily. As long as the P5+1 are negotiating with Iran there will be no international diplomatic support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Unless, of course, Israel, or someone else, pulls off a stunning intelligence coup and exposes or strikes hitherto undeclared Iranian nuclear facilities, which would show the world that the Iranians are not really interested in anything but obtaining a nuclear weapons program.
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