Forecast Highs

Day 14

The Israeli cabinet has decided to keep the forces inside Gaza but not to approve a wider, stronger attack against Hamas.

I fear this is the worst possible decision. It is a decision not to decide.

The current force inside Gaza has moved from a posture of aggressive forward movement and attacking Hamas in the peripheries of the large cities, to a posture where they have taken up static positions and are largely busy with protecting themselves. If in the first two days of ground deployment most of our soldiers were killed by our own friendly fire, over the past two days Hamas has started picking off our boys, mostly with RPGs and sniper fire. IDF soldiers are treading water and dying. Hamas is starting to learn the IDF movements and force structures. In short, our soldiers have gone from the offensive to the defensive - and this is not a good situation.

The current force inside Gaza is not able to deliver on the government’s stated aim of the war, which is to improve the security situation in the south. The only thing this force can deliver is to kill another 100 or so Hamas combatants, which won’t really dent the organization’s military infrastructure or force its political leadership to accept a ceasefire proposal.

Only the injection of massive force into Gaza can do that. The Israeli leadership is hesitant to do that.

The thousands of reservists who were called up last week on emergency orders and have completed their training in the south and are now waiting for orders. They have been ordered to stay in their bases over the Sabbath.

On Saturday night the reservists will start asking themselves and their commanders what’s going on, when they’re going in to Gaza or home to their families, jobs and businesses. You can’t keep thousands of reservists in a holding pattern for very long - it’s bad for morale and bad for the country’s economy.

And you can’t keep thousands of soldiers in a holding pattern in a battle zone that is the backyard of a guerrilla army.