Forecast Highs

While on a recent trip abroad, a senior Israeli defense official was asked by a foreign diplomat why Israelis were making such a fuss about the Schalit, Goldwasser and Regev kidnappings.

“I mean, aren’t you the ones who invented kidnappings in the Middle East?” the diplomat asked the Israeli.

True, Israeli commandos have, in the past, kidnapped Syrian and Egyptian generals from their beds, and Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists from their bases. Mossad agents even captured and smuggled Eichmann from Argentina and Vanunu from Italy.

So what’s all the fuss about? Why are we so emotionally vulnerable to kidnappings of our soldiers that the public pressure exerted on the government, via the media, corners the decision-makers and forces their hand in hostage negotiations? Why do we allow the kidnap weapon to be used to such effect against us by our enemies?

Experts on Israeli society point out that the first generations of Israelis were, generally speaking and of necessity, not so connected to their emotions and inner processes. Having to dry swampland and build a nation while simultaneously fighting several wars naturally focused the mind outwards. Killing, dying, kidnapping and being kidnapped were routine affairs. Building the state, elevating its army and institutions was everything. Showing the outside world what Israelis were made of was paramount. There was no time and no need for deep sessions with psychologists, psychotherapists, life-coaches and self-awareness workshops. This changed after the Yom Kippur War in 1973, which saw a popular outpouring of grief, and anger at the establishment. That emotional roller coaster fermented and erupted toward the end of the first Lebanon War. Israelis gradually grew less enamored with their leadership, while a new generation grew up with a different psychological makeup than their parents and grandparents. They opened up to their feelings.

The senior Israeli defense official asked by the foreign diplomat why Israelis were so touchy on the latest prisoner deal is a member of the older generation, those born before the 60s and 70s. To him, the Schalit, Goldwasser and Regev kidnappings are a continuation of an old story: Israel’s existential battle to survive in a hostile neighborhood, a region where the slightest sign of weakness can lead to catastrophe.

“People today forget that our entire history, we faced war; they forget that they need to bite their lips and fight,” he says, agreeing to speak only off the record. He believes the modern Israeli discourse is more akin to reality TV than to reality. There is too much emotion, too much hesitation, too many opinion polls and too little gravitas. A country like Israel cannot be run by people who feel they are contestants on a reality TV show - who have to compete for the adulation of the audience to stay on the show, he says, adding that a nation so easily rocked by kidnappings is in bad shape. This latest episode will end, the senior defense official says, but the season continues.

Does the deal strengthen Hizbullah? Yes. In the eyes of the Arab world, Hizbullah pulled off a major victory: It survived a war against Israel, kept a million Israelis in bomb shelters for a month and got its POWs back, including an important symbol, Samir Kuntar. Israel sent the IDF into Lebanon to retrieve its two kidnapped soldiers and got them back two years after the army withdrew, and through negotiations, not force. In the eyes of the Hizbullah leadership and much of the Arab world, the deal is a victory. And they will make it look like one just in case anyone over there has any doubts. As far as Hizbullah is concerned, the Second Lebanon War account is closed. It is now looking to close the Imad Mughniyeh account.

That it got Israel to agree to release Palestinian prisoners further raises its stock in the Arab world. Through this it strengthened Hamas and weakened the Palestinian Authority, further propagating the rise of extremists over moderates in the Middle East. Housing and Construction Minister Ze’ev Boim, voting against the deal, said, “Hamas is watching and taking this swap into account, and the price we will have to pay for Gilad Schalit will be higher. We come out weaker; we strengthen [Hizbullah leader Hassan] Nasrallah, whose image in the Middle East will be boosted. His way will be perceived as the right way.”

Boim was only one of three ministers who voted against the deal; the other 22 voted in favor.

Was all the death and destruction wrought on Lebanon during the war worth a deal for four captured fighters, Samir Kuntar and dozens of dead bodies? Nasrallah is not complaining: Hizbullah has been strengthened since the war, it has veto power in the new Lebanese government, and much of the shattered South has been rebuilt or is in the process of reconstruction, with sizable funding from Iran. In the years since Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 until the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Hizbullah amassed some 14,000 rockets of various types and ranges. In the two years since the war, they have amassed some 40,000. Some of their rockets can even reach south of Hadera. UN Resolution 1701 is in tatters, and UNIFIL is not a hindrance to Hizbullah’s operations.

Does the deal strengthen or weaken Israel? Depends on who you ask. The senior defense official thinks it’s a bad deal - it weakens our government system and strengthens “rule by reality TV format,” where every decision is based on popularity ratings and media headlines. It shows that only public pressure, lobby groups and media campaigns can get kidnapped soldiers back, and not a steadfast, decisive government.

Will kidnappings continue? Highly likely. Kidnapping and hostage negotiations have proven a successful tool for Hamas and Hizbullah, and there is no reason to believe they will stop now. Will the committee set up by Defense Minister Ehud Barak to draft new policy for prisoner exchanges withstand the first massive public and media pressure to “bring the boys home”? Highly unlikely. Will the next Karnit Goldwasser, God forbid there is one, follow in the footsteps of her highly successful predecessor, who banged on every door, got on every plane, interviewed on every TV station worldwide, just because a committee of retired generals and judges tell her she mustn’t? Of course not.

However, Dr. Ronen Hoffman, a lecturer on international relations at the IDC Herzliya and an expert on strategy and negotiations, says that although the latest deal may fall short on the security and diplomacy arenas, Israelis are strengthened by it because it underscores our moral and ethical strength.

“Paradoxically, what is perceived as our weakness is in truth a real strength. We allow ourselves to be vulnerable, and that reminds us that we are a moral and ethical people,” Hoffman says.

Bargaining over prisoners is a much more emotional affair than talks over land, demilitarization, water and other national and strategic issues, because real people are involved. The other side, Hizbullah in this case, uses this effect to play with our morale. Hoffman points out that Israelis have become intimately involved with the personalities in this story; we have been following them since day one. Through the press, we have joined the new wife, Karnit Goldwasser, on her quest all over the world. We cried with her on her wedding anniversary, and we saw her first Passover meal without Udi. We have seen and read in-depth interviews with the parents. We rage with Miki Goldwasser.

“Hostage negotiations turn national issues into personal ones. We all feel like we are negotiating for someone in our unit, in our family,” Hoffman says. The psychological effects of the personalization of the hostage negotiations cannot be underestimated, Hoffman asserts, adding that Israeli society is getting psychologically stronger.

Polls show that like the cabinet ministers, the majority of Israelis were in favor of the deal, even though Samir Kuntar is thought of in these parts as a despicable animal. The group of soldiers who make up the various “Friends of Schalit, Goldwasser and Regev” associations say it’s a good deal. They say that increasingly, army reservists are questioning whether the state would do everything to get them back should they fall into captivity. It’s a good deal, these people say, because it sends a signal to reservists that they will not be forgotten, and that encourages reservists to show up when they are called up.

Will it encourage more kidnappings? “Maybe, so what?” they say. “Kidnap the enemy in turn, or make it harder for the enemy to kidnap our soldiers, like the IDF brass should have done in the beginning; but do whatever it takes to get our boys back.”

According to all the polls, Israelis believe they can only rely on themselves, and that they only have each other. The polls show Israelis believe the government cannot be trusted to act in the best interests of the people. If such is the makeup of our society, can we ever negotiate from a position of strength? Does the deal uphold our deep moral commitment not to leave soldiers behind enemy lines, or is that ideal dangerously outdated and out of place in this neighborhood, leaving us open to constant blackmail? The answer is, of course, both.

It isn’t every day you get to meet your hero, and I’m so grateful for the opportunity to have met and interviewed mine today. Throughout my childhood, Jonty Rhodes was my inspiration, not just as a cricketer but as a role model. He was never really selected as a batsman or bowler [although later on in his career his batting improved dramatically]. He was selected as a fielder, whose prowess became legendary, and who could turn matches with his field work. I was never a good batsman or bowler, and nobody in my family had ever played cricket before. Rhodes’ example showed me that through fielding I could be part of a team, and cricket gave me so much growing up.

Anyway, here is an exclusive interview with Jonty Rhodes:

For those not familiar with South African cricketer Jonty Rhodes, the Cricinfo cricket website biography of the legendary sportsman is a good place to start:

“Rhodes worked harder than anyone else in a team of hard workers, frequently delaying the team bus at the end of practice for one more round of reflex catches hit from ten meters or less. Nobody has ever fielded better in the key one-day position of backward point, where he leapt like a salmon, threw opponents off balance, and stopped singles by reputation alone.”

The 38-year old Rhodes played for the South African national team from 1992 to 2003 until he was forced to retire due to injuries. He was voted one of the Wisden Cricketers of the Year in 1999, and is considered the best fielder the game has ever known. A gritty team player, Rhodes was repeatedly selected for the national side for his outstanding fielding, taking the place of batsmen and bowlers. His fielding saved his side many runs, it won games, and won Rhodes legions of followers worldwide. Read more »

I took these photos this week in the Banyas waterfall and Tel Dan spring in northern Israel. I think water is a huge issue in these parts, and always was. I’m not the first person to think that one day the price of water will exceed that of crude oil. Thousands of years ago the earliest inhabitants of the Tel Dan and Banyas chose these spots because of their abundant water, which flows from the melted ice on nearby Mt. Hermon, and from underneath the ground.

I played with the camera focus and light, and tried to capture as much of the movement and contrast from within the splashing water, and I’m very happy with the results.

By the way, Tel-Aviv Municipality today hosted the 4th Annual Water Fight at Rabin Square. It sure looks like fun, and the organizers say “the aim of the event is for people to have fun. We want to make people smile and feel happy, and get wet at the same time.” I think its time to put a stop to this stupid event: taking water from the municipal fountain and wasting it on a water fight is just so pre-water-crisis-days.

This AP picture from today’s event at Rabin Square just says it all: Take the most valuable possession you have and throw it away:

Anyway, below is a sort of photo essay of one of our greatest natural treasures, enjoy.

Woke up this morning alive, everything is fine. I guess the curse didn’t work. Here’s the blog post from last night:

I’m going to bed very soon, and I’m still alive. If I die tonight in my sleep its because a ‘religious’ man cursed me in Jerusalem today. As my friend and I drove past him, on the road towards the tunnel that takes you to the center of town, a man dressed in black pants, white button-up shirt, a long black coat, black shoes, and a black bowler hat screamed out “Tamut Halayla” [You should die tonight.] And all because I was driving in Jerusalem on the Sabbath. There were other cars in the area and it wasn’t a haredi neighborhood. He didn’t scream at them. I think he was a redhead. Read more »

There is nothing I can report to you from our one-and-a-half hour meeting with Defense Minister Ehud Barak at our offices today, as it was agreed beforehand that the briefing would be entirely off record.

What I can do however, is to give you my impressions of Barak at this point in time, and the thing that stands out most about him right now is that he is angry and feels that he needs to act: angry at the way the government is handling things in general; angry at Kadima, angry at what he believes are lost opportunities and wasted resources.

When talking about strategic and defense issues - Barak’s words were measured and his tone relaxed, and I got that reassured feeling that on these matters, Ehud Barak is the best possible person for the job. One year into the job as Defense Minister, Barak is confident that the security establishment is on the right track to meet the threats of the future, and he comes across as eminently believable. Read more »

Next week, the Standards Institution of Israel (SII) is hosting an international conference with the relatively innocuous and convoluted title of “Crisis Management of Water Utilities - ISO/TC 224 WG 7.”

ISO stands for International Standards Organization, TC stands for Technical Committee number 224, and WG 7 is Working Group seven. In simpler terms, what is happening at the SII next week is of such critical importance worldwide that it took months of wrangling over the wording of the title of the conference, with some participating nations wanting to stay away from a more alarmist, yet more accurate, conference title such as “Security of Water Utilities in the New Era of International Terrorism and the Increase in Frequency of Natural Disasters.”

When it comes to the vital resource of water, and the complex issues surrounding it, Israel has long been a world expert. Situated in arid land and surrounded by enemies, the Jewish state has had to devise tools and methods to make the best possible use of the water available to it, as well as defend its water resources from sabotage and attack. Both peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan have included water agreements. Potential peace agreements with the Palestinian Authority, Syria and Lebanon, if and when they come, will detail water arrangements. Read more »

Israelis, especially in the south, have been drinking desalinated water from the tap for the past two years, but increasingly, that trend is not catching on in the rest of the country as the perception that tap water is unhealthy continues to take hold. The desalination plant in Ashkelon produces much of that region’s water, and is one of the most technologically advanced facility of its kind in the world.

“The quality of desalinated water in our taps is increasing every year,” says Jacobo Sack, a veteran official at Israel’s National Water Carrier, Mekorot, and now a water and wastewater quality consultant. The increasing awareness of Israel’s acute water resource shortage has put the issue of drinking water at the forefront of the national agenda. Increasingly, Israelis will rely on desalinated water, both for drinking and irrigation, and the number of desalination plans in the country is slated to increase.

But there seems to be a vast disconnect between the contention by experts that desalinated tap water is clean and healthy, and the perception of just the opposite by large segments of the population. While there are no hard figures showing how many people refuse to drink tap water, preferring instead the bottled option, the phenomenon is quite prevalent, especially in the greater Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem areas. Some of the most common reasons given for not drinking tap water are: inconsistent water quality testing, frequent Health Ministry warnings for certain areas, the perception that water-carrying pipes are old and rusty, and, finally the taste. Read more »

Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz has been grilled by the local press over the past few days for saying in an interview that should Iran continue developing its nuclear program, Israel will attack it. Some commentators even went as far as accusing him of putting his political primary race, which hasn’t even been announced yet, above Israel’s strategic interests.

Shaul Mofaz, a former IDF Chief of General Staff and Defense Minister, has for years been in charge of Israel’s strategic dialogue with the United States. This posting was given to him not just because he has the security credentials necessary to understand the issues at hand, but also to sweeten the bitter pill he was given when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert replaced him with Labor Party’s then chairman Amir Peretz at the healm of the Defense Ministry. That move was seen as purely political, and Olmert paid the price of having an inexperienced defense minister at his side when he chose to embark on a war with Hizbullah in 2006. Since then Mofaz has been doing his job quietly and studiously, with very little fanfare or media leaks. He has been at the heart of the most sensitive security issues the Jewish state faces for years, building a reputation as a solid Mr. Security, a dependable ex-general we can count on in times of danger.

So why did he throw it all away?

Read more »

Last year towards the end of May I stopped smoking. To be totally truthful, I’ve had one-and-a-half cigarettes since last May.

The first one was in Istanbul. Read more »

Israel can lead the world in alternative energy technologies and policies because it has the right mix of experience with desert farming, water desalination, and high technology, and a looming energy shortage, says Isaac Berzin, a maverick scientist and entrepreneur hoping to establish an institute for alternative energy policy in Israel that will guide the local industry onto the world stage, and ultimately, position Israel at the forefront of the alternative energy revolution.

Returning just a few months ago to Israel after becoming somewhat of a star in the US following his success in farming algae for energy, Berzin brings his breakthrough into a country already teeming with alternative energy bright sparks. In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Berzin says his greatest breakthrough, he hopes, will be to position Israel as the testing ground, what he likes to call “the sanity test”, for local and foreign alternative energy technologies, with the aim of projecting Israel’s expertise in this field as a green light unto the nations. Read more »

Just came back from the BBC studio in Jerusalem where I was a guest panelist on the World Service Newshour radio program with Julian Marshall.

You can hear the second part here. I can’t find the first part online yet but will post it as soon as I can.

It was my first time on radio, so I was a little nervous, but the people on the other side of the line were real professionals and very encouraging, so like the BBC.

We spoke about everything from Ehud Olmert, Hillary Clinton, Avram Grant, Boxing in Jamaica, and Mars exploration.

Today, Israelis chose the Duchifat, or Hoopoe in English as our national bird.

Some quick research shows that the Hoopoe fills its nest with its own fesces to ward off predators. So basically, to keep itself safe, it has to live in its own crap, along with all the constant bad smell. It also can apparently fling its fesces at its enemies as a sort of projectile. Some more research shows the bird is mentioned in the holy books with King Solomon, and is thus associated with wisdom.

Interesting choice for a bird to represent Israel.

Legend has it that last year, when the first Winograd Report into the Second Lebanon War was about to be dropped like a cluster bomb onto the Israeli political and military scene, political king-maker and spin-master supreme Reuven Adler switched off his cellular phone, packed his bags and hopped onto a plane to New York.

Adler, head of a vast media and advertising empire and long-time strategic consultant to the top political echelon, was in a pickle: He was serving as an adviser to just too many cabinet members (almost half the ministers, from all coalition parties). Many of them needed guidance on how to outmaneuver, depose, discredit and beat down their fellow cabinet members ­ other Adler clients. Read more »

This is such a great surprise. One of my all-time heroes Jonty Rhodes is coming to Israel in July to play some cricket as part of Israel’s 60th celebration, and he will be on a special Invitation XI team. Now if the Israel Cricket Association were really smart, they would create some buzz before Rhodes even gets here, and try get him on the local TV sports shows when he arrives. He’s a huge name in world sport and anyone of this stature coming to Israel could, if handled properly, inspire some kids to take up the game. Jonty was a boyhood hero of mine and inspired me to play harder, try harder, while also having fun during a game.

For those of you who have never heard of him, here’s a quick line from a Cricinfo bio of Jonty:

“Rhodes worked harder than anyone else in a team of hard workers, frequently delaying the team bus at the end of practice for one more round of reflex catches hit from ten metres or less. Nobody has ever fielded better in the key one-day position of backward point, where he leapt like a salmon, threw off balance, and stopped singles by reputation alone.”

Thanks to Steven Shein for the early heads-up:

Jonty Rhodes, the former South Africa player, will be the top draw in a unique Israel team - including a collection of Jewish cricketers from South Africa, Australia, Ireland and India - that will take on an India A squad to mark the 60th anniversary of Israel’s founding. Read more »

This is the fifth installment of Cries from the Beloved Country blog posts, chronicling the latest issues in my former home, South Africa. I’m desperately wanting to write about good news from SA, but lately I can’t find any: Electricity outages, worsening crime, racism on campus, the return of Jacob Zuma, and now this xenophobic violence. The Mail and Guardian asks if this is the end of the rainbow nation?

Honestly, I think that Thabo Mbeki’s appeasement of Robert Mugabe and his refusal to confront his northern neighbor has come back to haunt him. By not working to convince Mugabe to reform or bring about his downfall, Mbeki, as the head of the most powerful nation in Africa, has only contributed to the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe which led so many to flee that country for the hope of a better life in South Africa. Now that they are his guests, whether he wants them or not, Mbeki has a moral obligation to protect the refugees seeking shelter and work in his country until, and if, they can go back to their homes. This means imposing law and order in his own country. Read more »

Just heard that Or Yehuda police have turned this hot potato over to the national police HQ for investigation. I’ll be keeping an eye on this, because if there is a real inquiry and arrests are made, then this will turn into a massive issue with the ultra-Orthodox likely to get really offended. And if there isn’t a real inquiry and no arrests are made then it turns into a huge issue with the messianic Jews getting highly offended.

Anyway, on to the story:

The burning of hundreds of New Testaments by yeshiva students in Or Yehuda last week was regrettable and unplanned, the city’s deputy mayor, the man who spurred the students to act, told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

Deputy Mayor Uzi Aharon of Shas used the opportunity of speaking to the Post, which publishes a monthly Christian Edition, to apologize to Christians worldwide, saying he hoped the incident would not inflame tensions between Jews and Christians.

Following the publication of the story on Tuesday, however, many messianic Jewish and other Christian groups expressed grave concern over the increasingly violent nature of anti-missionary activity in Israel. Read more »

Here’s an interesting twist to the non-enforcement of the no-smoking in public places law.

On Thursday night I was at the Foster’s Bar on the corner of Shlomo Hamelech and Frishman in Tel-Aviv, a small, intimate bar with an upmarket vibe. It was my housemate’s birthday party [about ten of us] and there were about 40 other people at the bar. Several of them were smoking [some of my friends who were there, being mostly Anglos, went outside to smoke - because they are civilized people]. I’d say about 7 or 8 people were smoking in the bar, and Foster’s was slowly starting to fill up with smoke.

I asked the barman if he wouldn’t mind telling the smokers to please go outside [I've learned the hard way not to approach smokers at bars myself]. This is the exchange that followed:

Me: Why are you letting people smoke in here? Its illegal. Can you please ask them to smoke outside.

Barman: I’m afraid I can’t do that.

Me: Yes you, can. The law is on your side.

Barman: No I can’t, and I have a really good reason too. But I don’t want to go into it, its complicated. Just trust me, I can’t. Can I get you another drink?

Me: What? You’re not serious.

Barman: I am. If I ask these people to go smoke outside the municipality will close this bar down at 12:30, and they’ll keep it closed.

Me: Because?

Barman: Because if more than five people smoke outside then they’re making a noise and the neighbors complain, and there is a law in the city that says you can’t make a big noise in a residential area after midnight. Trust me I suffer from the smokers here myself, but there is nothing I can do.

Me: Why don’t you tell them to go smoke outside and ask them to be quiet?

Barman: I can’t do that. People talk.

Me: So, you’re breaking the law in here, so that you won’t be breaking the law outside? How does that make any sense?

Barman: What can I do? If I don’t let people smoke in here they’ll close us down.

Six months after the government enacted the no-smoking in public places law, this barman was essentially saying that he could not abide by that law [as if anyone were actually enforcing it] because he would be breaking another, older city law: no noise in residential places after midnight.

Welcome to Absurdistan.

Just sat in on the final panel of President Shimon Peres’ ‘Facing Tomorrow’ Conference, where Mr. Television Haim Yavin hosted Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Trade and Industry Minister Eli Yishai and opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu.

All four politicians were asked by the moderator to give a speech, lasting ten minutes, about what Israel means to them. Needless to say, each one used the opportunity to present what amounted to his/ her own electoral platform. Perhaps they are smelling elections in the air.

The speeches were void of any real headlines or news; just the fact that all four of them were on the stage together was interesting in itself. What I found more interesting however was the crowd’s reactions to each of the speakers. There were at least several thousand conference -goers in attendance, and I think many of them were tired and restless at the end of a very busy three-day conference.

Instead of dissecting what the speakers said, I thought I’d give you an observation of the level of chatter and patter by the audience members during the speeches as an indication of who was charismatic and who was not, who held the audience’s attention and who meandered and lost the crowd, which messages were welcomed and which missed the mark. I call the it chatter-and-patter-o-meter, from 1 [audience chatted amongst themselves very little and were absorbed by what the speaker was saying] to 5 [audience basically ignored the speaker and chatted and pattered away freely]. Read more »

Here is the applause-o-meter from last night’s President’s Conference at the Jerusalem Convention Center honoring 60 years of American-Israeli friendship. There were several thousand people in the hall, many of whom were participants in the conference, as well as many Israelis with connections to American think tanks and organizations; and many American citizens.

The applause-o-meter is ranked in numbers from 1 to 10 with 1 being extreme dissatisfaction and 10 being extreme adulation.

Peres walks up to the stage: 9 out of 10 [Most Israelis feel here is at least one politician they can look up to, largely because he is no longer an actual politician but a real leader]

Olmert walks up to the stage: 5 out of 10 [Prime Minister embroiled in at least 4 police investigations; and is deeply unpopular] Read more »

Current plans for water conservation and existing desalination facilities are insufficient to meet the country’s growing water demands and rapidly decreasing supply, the Environmental Protection Ministry warned on Tuesday.

Due to the “serious threats to Israel’s water resources, there is a need for a visionary plan exceeding the one in place today,” Dr. Yeshayahu Bar-Or, the ministry’s chief scientist, wrote in a letter to Water Authority head Prof. Uri Shani. “Desalination plants operating even at the increased rate of 500-800 million cubic meters per year cannot provide an adequate response to the worsening shortage in water. Extra measures are needed.”

Currently, 60 percent of Israel’s sewage water is recycled. According to forecasts published in 2005, water produced at a string of desalination plants planned for the Mediterranean coast is expected to meet 15% of the country’s needs in 2008. Read more »